Before
you go any further you should have read the article on the methodology of
this anaylsis.
So let’s take a look at
the data for the last three qualification periods and see what we may
determine from the data. Firstly here is a chart of the HQCs
for each event by year. The table below that shows the HQCs
by Age Group and the detailed breakdowns by AG by year can be found at the
foot of the page. Let’s discuss the races individually. Please also note that
Wisconsin, Florida
and Western Australia take place in the
previous calendar year to Hawaii.
Thus when I discuss IMoo for the 2007 season the
race actually took place in 2006.
Average HQC
|
Season
|
Event
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
Average
|
Arizona
|
18.7%
|
22.6%
|
19.6%
|
20.3%
|
Lake Placid
|
20.4%
|
17.3%
|
19.3%
|
19.0%
|
Coeur D'alene
|
17.6%
|
21.2%
|
18.0%
|
18.9%
|
Louisville
|
|
|
18.9%
|
18.9%
|
New Zealand
|
18.2%
|
|
18.5%
|
18.3%
|
Malaysia
|
|
20.8%
|
15.4%
|
18.1%
|
Canada
|
22.4%
|
15.5%
|
16.2%
|
18.0%
|
France
|
21.2%
|
16.8%
|
15.4%
|
17.8%
|
South Africa
|
19.7%
|
14.9%
|
18.0%
|
17.5%
|
Korea
|
15.9%
|
|
18.0%
|
16.9%
|
Wisconsin
|
16.4%
|
22.0%
|
12.1%
|
16.8%
|
Germany
|
14.5%
|
18.9%
|
14.9%
|
16.1%
|
Brazil
|
14.6%
|
17.9%
|
15.2%
|
15.9%
|
Lanzarote
|
17.8%
|
15.6%
|
14.2%
|
15.9%
|
Japan
|
14.9%
|
16.1%
|
15.9%
|
15.7%
|
Australia
|
14.2%
|
15.3%
|
14.3%
|
14.6%
|
Switzerland
|
15.0%
|
15.1%
|
13.5%
|
14.5%
|
United Kingdom
|
16.2%
|
12.7%
|
14.4%
|
14.5%
|
Florida
|
14.8%
|
12.5%
|
13.7%
|
13.7%
|
Austria
|
13.3%
|
15.0%
|
12.6%
|
13.6%
|
Western Australia
|
11.4%
|
15.5%
|
11.3%
|
12.7%
|
Average
|
16.7%
|
17.0%
|
15.7%
|
16.4%
|
Arizona tops the list overall
rating 5th place in 2005 and 1st in both 2006 and 2007.
Over the last three seasons it rates as the best event for qualification in
the M18 and M25 age groups with 3rd in M30, 4th in M35,
6th in M40 and 4th in M45. This is what I love. Not
only does it come out first but the other parameters that I like to see are
all there. Notably the consistency over time and across all the age groups
and the above average number of slots. Strangely enough, although perhaps
linked to this, is the fact that Arizona is
one of the few IMs in North
America that does not sell out in minutes. For the last two
years the registration has not been a problem. So how about the course
profile. Well its calendar placement is not ideal for many athletes. This
early season event means that you really need to be out there in the winter
months building your base. The temperatures could potentially require a
non-wetsuit swim and with WTC looking at the speedskin
issue quite closely this could mean that the non-swimmers amongst us (and
that includes me) will have to spend a little more time in the pool instead
of relying on artificial buoyancy. Wetsuits have been allowed in the first
three editions of the event but it is probably not a perennial guarantee. In
2007 the bike course was typified by high winds which combined with the
desert sand gave the participants something to think about. Heat is of course
an issue on the run but then again that is a likely scenario in the majority
of IM races. IM Marathon times are of course way off the times posted by our
single sport cousins. Much more so than the bike and swim times. We often
remind them of the 2.4 mile swim and the 112 mile bike warm up as an excuse,
but we should also include the fact that most marathon races start at an
early hour and are over before the temperature can seriously trouble the
serious competitors. It is a fact of IM racing that if you are looking to do
Kona Qualifying times then in the pleasant destinations that WTC have
selected you are probably going to be starting your marathon at around 1:30
in the afternoon in temperatures upwards of 30 degrees centigrade. If your
goal is not only to get to Kona, but to put in a good performance once you
are there, then events in these kinds of conditions are the ones you should
be aiming for anyway.
So Arizona tops the list as the best bet for
Kona qualification and you can expect to find me at the starting line there
in April 2008.
Lake Placid and Coeur D’alene. It is
appropriate that these two events should place next to each other on the list
in 2nd and 3rd places respectively. The data show
consistency across the age groups but fluctuate by year. Most triathletes
will figure out immediately why this is. The decision of the WTC to create a
North American Championship race and alternate this race between these two
locations over the last few seasons certainly has an impact over the
qualifying requirements. Firstly, if you have read studiously the theory
behind my methodology (and by the way if you haven’t then much of this isn’t going to make much sense to you) then you will
understand that I have to fudge the Elite Reference Time for the year in
which the Male Pros do not attend each of the races. For the year that they
do attend the races one could argue that the ERT will be better than it would
have been had the course not been designated as the NA championship race as
the pro field is likely to be artificially stronger. I have not made any
adjustment for this factor as it is probably supposition. What is clear from
the data is that the Age Group field does vary according to this effect. Thus
another notable conclusion to draw, and therefore to take into account for
race selection, is that the quality of the men’s pro field most certainly
impacts the Age Group field. So if you are mulling over Arizona as your race
choice and you read that Normann Stadler, Faris Al-Sultan, Chris
McCormack have just signed up for the race, then you should be aware that
their presence will attract a lot of good Age Groupers. Also note that the
presence of Johathon
“JonnyO” Caron is likely to attract the vast
majority the Slowtwitch community and a higher
participation of womens. Despite spending half
their lives glued to the forum, praising Cervelo
and refining their sarcasm, STers nevertheless seem
to find the time to maintain a higher standard of IM performance than the
general population. If the kona slot is your goal
then you are best selecting either of these races on the year that the pros
(of your gender) are not attending. Registering for the race may be a problem
as they tend to sell out within minutes.
Average HQC
|
Category
|
Event
|
M18
|
M25
|
M30
|
M35
|
M40
|
M45
|
Average
|
Arizona
|
24.1%
|
17.3%
|
16.7%
|
17.7%
|
20.8%
|
25.3%
|
20.3%
|
Lake Placid
|
20.4%
|
17.0%
|
16.3%
|
16.9%
|
19.5%
|
23.9%
|
19.0%
|
Coeur D'alene
|
18.8%
|
15.1%
|
16.8%
|
18.7%
|
21.5%
|
22.7%
|
18.9%
|
Louisville
|
14.7%
|
12.0%
|
13.2%
|
18.9%
|
22.3%
|
32.2%
|
18.9%
|
New Zealand
|
17.6%
|
16.3%
|
15.6%
|
17.6%
|
18.9%
|
24.0%
|
18.3%
|
Malaysia
|
18.8%
|
11.4%
|
15.2%
|
17.3%
|
20.9%
|
24.7%
|
18.1%
|
Canada
|
16.5%
|
15.7%
|
14.8%
|
16.9%
|
19.7%
|
24.8%
|
18.0%
|
France
|
19.7%
|
12.0%
|
11.9%
|
14.7%
|
19.9%
|
28.6%
|
17.8%
|
South Africa
|
17.8%
|
16.4%
|
14.6%
|
15.9%
|
21.1%
|
19.3%
|
17.5%
|
Korea
|
9.1%
|
14.0%
|
12.7%
|
19.6%
|
20.5%
|
25.8%
|
16.9%
|
Wisconsin
|
16.3%
|
15.5%
|
14.5%
|
15.9%
|
18.2%
|
20.5%
|
16.8%
|
Germany
|
13.2%
|
11.7%
|
14.8%
|
16.5%
|
17.9%
|
22.7%
|
16.1%
|
Brazil
|
13.2%
|
12.8%
|
16.9%
|
15.9%
|
16.7%
|
20.0%
|
15.9%
|
Lanzarote
|
7.6%
|
11.0%
|
15.1%
|
18.4%
|
19.8%
|
23.3%
|
15.9%
|
Japan
|
15.4%
|
10.5%
|
13.5%
|
15.5%
|
16.7%
|
22.4%
|
15.7%
|
Australia
|
10.6%
|
11.2%
|
11.2%
|
15.3%
|
18.9%
|
20.5%
|
14.6%
|
Switzerland
|
11.4%
|
11.3%
|
12.0%
|
15.2%
|
17.6%
|
19.7%
|
14.5%
|
United Kingdom
|
11.1%
|
10.3%
|
12.9%
|
13.9%
|
17.6%
|
20.9%
|
14.5%
|
Florida
|
14.1%
|
11.2%
|
11.5%
|
13.1%
|
14.2%
|
17.9%
|
13.7%
|
Austria
|
9.6%
|
11.4%
|
12.2%
|
13.7%
|
16.3%
|
18.6%
|
13.6%
|
Western Australia
|
11.7%
|
8.8%
|
12.1%
|
12.8%
|
14.1%
|
16.9%
|
12.7%
|
Average
|
14.8%
|
13.0%
|
14.0%
|
16.0%
|
18.5%
|
22.2%
|
16.4%
|
Louisville came in 4th on
the list on its inaugural year. A few notes about this race then. Firstly one
year’s data is probably not enough to determine whether this is truly where
the HQC will end up on an ongoing basis. As the time of writing I would
anticipate that there should not be much difference between the standard in
the second year. Many good or experienced Age Groupers are somewhat reticent
about participating in the early years of an event and adopt a wait-and-see
policy. The Louisville organization was flawless for 2007, however by the
time that most athletes would have known about that, they would have already
had to commit to the other large North American races (Canada, Coeur D’alene, Lake Placid) if they so desired since the
registration for these races closed before the feedback from IMKY filtered
back to the population. Also the issue of the time trial start and the non
wetsuit swim may impact some of decision making processes of some athletes.
However look for IMKY to stiffen up in terms of the HQC from 2009 onwards but
also look for the registration window to become shorter as the event gains
momentum. The calendar placement in late august means that you might get a
good roll down because a lot of athletes will not want a 6 or 7 week turn
around before Kona. If you just want to get to Kona then this is fine,
however if you want to perform a Kona then this short turnaround will not
allow you to peak properly.
New Zealand takes fifth place on
the list. It is one of the oldest IMs on the
circuit and also has 80 slots available for the event. NZ is going to be a
long way to travel if you are not local which means that despite its
longevity IMNZ is not an immediate sell out so you can always get into the
race. Additionally the early season calendar placement (early march) will put
off a number of athletes, although the advantage is that it gives you 7
months to recover and re-peak for Kona. Note that weather conditions in 2006
forced the cancellation of the swim and the reduction of the bike and run to
half distance. Again, IMNZ is a long way to travel to risk your day being
ruined or curtailed by the weather.
Malaysia is 6th on
the list but I’m going to have to provide a long list of concerns about
making this a viable Kona qualification selection. The calendar placement is
barely out of the winter training section. There are only 35 slots total for
the event it has one of the highest slot acceptance rates on the circuit. So
you need to be hitting a podium place whatever your age group which leaves
you exposed somewhat to who decides to make this their race. The HQC varied
significantly between 2006 and 2007 and note that poor weather conditions
forced a curtailed race in 2005. I would love to do this race some day just
for the destination; however I would have to exclude it as a safe Kona bet.
Canada comes next on the list.
This is a well established event that lots of IM racers dream about doing if
they could just get into the race. Registration normally closes out on site
on the day following the race each year. The HQC has been trending downwards
(more difficult) over the 3 years of data covered in the scope so it will
likely fall down further down this list in the next few years. It’s a race
that a lot of IMers would love to check the box on,
but its 80 slots has already attracted a lot of good Age Groupers who are
loyal to the race and are likely to remain so. Also its calendar placement of
late august leaves a short turn around for Kona
France. Ahh Nice. My favourite IM on the circuit. If they could do something a
little more interesting on the run then this race would be absolutely
perfect. The positives for Nice are a great mid-june
calendar placement, a wonderful swim and bike course, a great location and
running temperatures that will certainly come close to those at Kona. However
the HQC is coming down as the event gains popularity and the bike course
requires a lot of climbing which is atypical of the Kona bike course. Thus
your bike preparation will need to be different for both events. Nice has
about the fastest swim course on the IM circuit. The conditions are idea, a
salt water swim, wet suit legal and a ripple less, current less Mediterranean sea. So if you are a good swimmer then
you will not be able to gain much advantage, but if you are a poor swimmer then
this course will certainly limit the damage. Be certain to say hello to me if
you see me in Nice in 2008 as I wouldn’t miss this IM for anything.
South Africa. Contrary to Nice, which is absolutely the best
course for poor swimmers, South
Africa is a race that you should
definitely consider if swimming is your strong suit. And let’s go further and
say that you need to be a strong ocean swimmer. The waves, swell, chop and
current will leave more unclaimed bikes in T1 than any other IM on the
circuit. In 2007 only 6 athletes exited the water in under 1 hour. Port Elizabeth can be
extremely windy so you need to be comfortable and confident on the bike and
wheel selection can potentially make or break your day. South Africa does not have a lot of slots, but
the Rand exchange rate can be very
prohibitive for South Africans to envisage a Kona trip. There are typically
only a dozen or so South Africans a Kona each year. So the roll down can give
you a break but this is by no means guaranteed. A great destination, but not
the safest qualification bet.
Korea along with Louisville,
Canada and the UK
has the most unfavourable calendar placement at the
end of August giving the shortest turnaround for Kona. It didn’t seem to hurt
Chrissie “Who” Wellington
too much though. Many lay claim to the title, but Korea IS the hardest IM on
the circuit with the slowest elite reference time. The course record is 8h37
and in only 2 of the last 5 years has the winning male gone under 9 hours.
Inclement weather forced cancellations of the swim in 2004 and 2006 and its also going to be very hot. There are two many
variables here to make this a recommended place to qualify, although a great
destination event.
Wisconsin through my stats all
over the place in the 2007 qualifying season. Along with Florida
and Western Australia
this is one of three events which take place in the previous year. So to
qualify for Kona in 2008 you need to have already done Wisconsin in 2007. Hope you did well!! For
my analysis I have only included the data up to the 2006 event since it is
qualifying for the 2007 season. Wisconsin
looked like a good bet for qualification if of course you are not already
competing at Hawaii
in the same calendar year. This means that all but the most hardened of the perennial
Hawaii
participants will not do IMoo (as it is affectionally known) so there might be some softness in
the Elite reference time and the qualifying field. Up to the 2006 event the
HQC look failry high and then it came in with a
mind boggling 12%. Yes the elite reference time was even softer than usual,
but the qualifying times really did stiffen up compared to 2005 and before.
Qualification for 2008 held to the new standard so this has moved of my radar
of good qualifying events
Germany. On initial perusal you
would think that Germany
should be a great event for qualifying with at total of 120 slots. This turns
out to be highly misleading and there are a number of factors going against
IM German as your qualifying event. The event sells out immediately. This is
incredible as WTC made a tough call in 2005 to move away from one of the
darling events on the calendar (Roth) and started another IM Germany in Frankfurt. Roth is still thriving without WTC but IM
Germany managed to outsell it immediately and did so again in 2006 and 2007.
These Germans are good no doubt about it and consequently Germany is the second most represented nation
in Kona after the US.
IM Germany’s 120 slots and the status of IM Europe combined with a nice
mid-season calendar placement attracts the best that Germany and the rest of Europe
has to offer. An additional attraction is the presence of Germany’s best
Ironman Normann, Faris
and the rest If you want to measure yourself against the best pros and age
groupers in Europe then here is the place to do it, but if you’re borderline
qualifying then you may want to wait for a few years to improve before having
your Kona hopes dashed in Frankfurt. Timo Bracht’s 8h15 meant that Germany
was the fastest IM qualifying course in the 2007 qualifying season, a claim
usually held by Austria.
Well that covers the top
12 of the 21 IM qualifying courses. Obviously that means that Brazil, Lanzarote, Japan, Australia, Switzerland, UK, Florida,
Austria and Western Australia are in the tougher half of the qualifying
circuit (in that order) so I won’t waste my time or yours by discussing them.
Finally I’ll leave you
with an interesting piece of information which really demonstrates the
importance of your race selection and also speaks volumes about IM racing in
general. In IM Western Australia on Dec 2nd, 2006 there were two
qualifying slots in the Men’s 40-44 age group. 44
year old Sandy Burt recorded an astounding 8 hours 59 minutes and 43 seconds
in this age group…….. and failed to qualify. How
sick is it that a 44 year old male can go sub 9 in an IM and not qualify for
Kona? Yet he was beaten on the day by Stephen Hemy
(8:55:57) and 44 year old Dave Boyes (8:56:15) who
both took their slots. In fact Dave aged up to 45 when he got to Hawaii in 2007. Sandy’s Kona 2007 dream
did not end there though as he went to IM Korea 7 weeks prior to Kona and
qualified in the M45-49 category with a 10h46 IM which won this age group.
|